A win for the ‘No to 10 million’ initiative in a referendum on June 14th would in years to come impact many aspects of life in Switzerland. But what about cross-border travel with Switzerland’s neighbours?
Various experts paint different ‘disaster scenarios’ of what would happen if Swiss voters say ‘yes’ to hard right’s bid to cap the population at 10 million by limiting immigration from the European Union..
For instance – economists and employers’ association say if the initiative passed and the Swiss government was forced to break agreements with the EU such as free movement, it would worsen the already serious labour shortages and hit the country’s economy hard.
But what about its potential impact on travel?
One question asked is if, as the initiative demands, the Swiss government has to break ties with the EU if the population hits 10 million before the year 2050, then what would impact would that have on Switzerland’s borders with neighbouring countries and other members of the EU’s Schengen area.
In other words, would Swiss citizens continue to enjoy unencumbered access to other 29 countries within the Schengen area, as they have done for almost two decades, or will they be treated as the same category of travellers as nationals of third countries – including UK citizens after Brexit.
The Swiss government states that if: “If the 10-million threshold is exceeded, Switzerland would have to terminate these agreements, including the one with the EU on the free movement of persons after two years. Switzerland’s participation in the EU’s Schengen agreement would also be called into question.”
That suggests Swiss nationals would face the same kind of hurdles getting into the EU that British nationals now face, including being subject to the 90-day-rule and having to register for the new biometric border system known as EES. In other words restrictions on travel and queues at border points.
It is true that since becoming part of Schengen in 2008 – after 55 percent of Swiss voters approved the measure in a referendum in 2005 – Swiss citizens have enjoyed a ‘borderless’, and therefore mostly hassle-free, travel across 29 countries in Europe.
But will they continue to enjoy this privilege if the initiative is accepted?
Or to rephrase the question – will Switzerland remain a part of the Schengen zone?
At this point, there is no definite answer as to what will happen in the future – given it all depends on population growth (Switzerland is projected to reach 10 million by the early 2040s), but we do know at least that nothing will change in the short term.
“The effect of this measure on travel would not be immediate,” Christa Tobler, professor of European Integration Law at the University of Basel told The Local.
But if the free movement of persons agreement is ever terminated, “the EU could cancel Schengen as well, because politically it considers these two agreements to be linked to each other,” Tobler explained.
“Until then, however, nothing would change in the border regime.”
If this does happen, it would not be for years – not until Switzerland would have to withdraw from the free movement agreement within two years of reaching the 10-million population mark.
READ MORE: When would Switzerland’s ‘No to 10 million’ initiative take effect?
Tobler pointed out, however, that even if Brussels ousts Switzerland from Schengen, Bern will not necessarily reciprocate with its own stricter entry rules.
It may keep its borders open for incoming traffic, as this measure would be “very important for the Swiss tourism sector,” she pointed out.
Under this scenario, Swiss tourists would face hurdles travelling within the Schengen zone, while the vice-versa would not be true: visitors from 29 member states would still enter Switzerland easily.
An important thing to know is that the new measures would apply only to those travelling with Swiss passports.
EU citizens living in Switzerland or dual EU-Swiss nations travelling with their European Union passports would not be affected.
