A likely smaller issuance plan and AOFM possibly reducing its cash buffer “is bullish for swap spreads” given the prospect of a smaller debt to GDP outlook. “As a rule of thumb, for every 1 percentage point move lower in the debt-to-GDP outlook, the swap spread can widen by 2.5-5 basis points.” Provided an improved budget position as expected, SocGen recommends paying 10-year EFP — buy 10-year futures and pay the swap – as futures should outperform on less issuance
