At the time of year when people would normally be booking their summer holidays, there is great uncertainty around whether airlines will be forced to cancel flight, or hike prices, due to jet fuel shortages. Here’s a look at the situation in France.
Due to the on-again, off-again closure of the Hormuz Strait following the US-Israeli attacks on Iran, much of Europe is facing shortages of fuel, especially jet fuel.
The head of the International Air Transport Association has said that Europe could start to see cancellations “by the end of May” due to fuel shortages.
With the obvious caveat that we cannot predict what will happen in the Hormuz Strait the days and weeks to come, here’s a look at the situation in France.
Supplies
IATA boss Willie Walsh said an assessment from the International Energy Agency that fuel for aircraft could start running out in Europe in six weeks’ time was “sobering”.
“We have also estimated that by the end of May we could start to see some cancellations in Europe for lack of jet fuel. This is already happening in parts of Asia.”
All European countries have their own supply chains and some are more dependent than others on fuel coming through the Hormuz Strait, which transports around 20 percent of global oil supplies.
Travel experts say that France is ‘mid-table’ when it comes to the risk of shortages.
The latest stock take showed that Austria, Bulgaria and Poland have comfortable stocks. For Britain, Iceland and the Netherlands it is the opposite. France is somewhere in the middle.
Rico Luman, a transport specialist and economist at ING Bank, told AFP: “Smaller, inland airports will be at a greater disadvantage than major hubs, which can be resupplied more quickly.
“It won’t be a case of complete paralysis, but of partial cancellations for certain airlines and certain airports.”
Even if a diplomatic solution is found and the Hormuz Strait reopens quickly, it will take months for global supplies to return to normal.
Prices and other factors
However it’s not just about the supply of jet fuel, it’s also about prices – airlines which haven’t ‘hedged’ fuel prices in advance are immediately vulnerable to price rises, and may therefore start cancelling some flights for financial reasons. This is more likely to hit the less popular routes into smaller airports, which don’t make as much profit for the airlines.
It’s for this reason that some airlines, like the Scandinavian carrier SAS, have already announced cancellations, while other airlines say it is not necessary at present.
The destination is also important – airlines can carry extra fuel reserves on short-haul flights but this is not possible on long-haul flights, so if the destination country is short of fuel the flight may be cancelled, even if stocks are fine in France.
Asia is the world’s worst-affected region, due to its heavy dependency on fuel coming through the Hormuz Strait, and has already begun to ground flights.
Airlines
The French flagship carrier Air France has made no announcement on flight cancellations, although it says it plans to increase fares by around €50 per person.
However the group’s Dutch arm KLM has announced around 160 flight cancellations – around one per cent of the total – which it says are due to rising fuel costs. The cancellations have focused on routes between Amsterdam’s Schiphol and London and Düsseldorf – this is a busy route on which passengers can be easily booked onto other flights, therefore avoiding the need for the airline to pay compensation.
US-based airlines have had a mixed response – American Airlines has announced plans for price hikes but no cancellations, while Delta says it intends to ‘cut capacity’ but not cancel pre-booked flights.
Air New Zealand has announced flight cancellations while officials in Australia say they have around 30 days of fuel left.
Meanwhile, on the budget airlines easyJet says passengers should expect price hikes.
You can find a list of the latest statements from airlines here, although most of them are unwilling to speculate on the situation past the end of May.
What are your rights if your flight is cancelled?
EU consumer protections apply if a flight either departs from an EU country (like France) or the airline is based in an EU country.
However, airlines can make adjustments to flight schedules without paying compensation as long as passengers are offered alternatives more than two weeks in advance.
If a flight is cancelled with less than 14 days’ notice, passengers may be entitled to compensation. In the case of a last-minute cancellation passengers may be entitled to having the cost of food and overnight accommodation covered – although cancellations due to fuel shortages are unlikely to happen at the last minute.
READ ALSO: Your rights on delayed or cancelled flights in France✎
