The aim of the hard-right’s initiative to cap immigration is to prevent Switzerland’s population from growing to 10 million residents. But a demographer says this threshold will likely never be reached even if no cap is enforced.
The premise of the Swiss People’s Party (SVP) ‘No to 10 million’ initiative, which is to be voted on in a referendum on June 14th, is that immigration from the EU needs to be curbed in order to slow down population growth and prevent the country’s key infrastructure, including housing, public transport, health system, and schools, from being strained.
READ MORE: What exactly does the Swiss ‘no to 10 million’ anti-immigration proposal aim to do?
It is true that Switzerland has been in a situation of uninterrupted demographic growth for several decades, with immigration being the major contributing factor.
But according to demographer Hendrik Budliger, this threshold may never be reached, due to the country’s aging population and steadily declining birth rates.
“What worries me most is the combination of an aging population and a low birth rate,” he said. “We need more births, otherwise our society will eventually decline.”
“Net immigration remains high today, but that doesn’t mean it will always be the case,” he told Swiss media Blick.
That’s because immigrants, especially those employed in low-paid jobs, may no longer find Switzerland as attractive as their own EU countries.
“Salaries are high, but so is the cost of living. In other countries, childcare costs are more heavily subsidised by the state. And becoming a homeowner remains extremely difficult in Switzerland,” he said.
“Therefore, I consider the low-growth scenario more realistic. I don’t think Switzerland will ever reach 10 million inhabitants, ” Budliger added.
Slow growth
Though it may seem that Budliger’s forecasts go against the prevalent demographic scenarios of strong, immigration-driven population growth, some other projections support his view.
For instance, according to an analysis carried out by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), the combination of the aging population and low birth rate could lead “to slower population growth followed by a slight decline, with the number of permanent residents reaching 9.3 million in 2055.”
That number is only slightly higher than the current population of 9.1 million.
At this point, however, both scenarios – growth and decline – are just forecasts,
The actual situation will only become clear several years from now.
READ MORE: Swiss government spells out the good and the bad of the ‘No to 10 million’ proposal
