The latest opinion polls suggest Swiss voters will back the ‘No to 10 million’ proposal ailed at limiting immigration in Switzerland. So what will happen after the June 14th vote if that happens?
While nothing is certain until the ballots are counted, the latest poll indicates that the measure could pass, with 52 percent of voters saying ‘yes’ to the proposal.
If that happens, the government, which has actively campaigned against the initiative, will have no choice but to accept the result and move on from there – even though consequences for Switzerland could be enormous.
READ MORE: Swiss government spells out the good and the bad of the ‘No to 10 million’ proposal
What would the next steps be?
The process will be the same as it is each time a popular initiative is accepted at the ballot box.
Already the day after the vote – that is, on Monday, June 15th – the Federal Council will have to take concrete first steps towards implementation.
It would have to go about terminating – or, in the best-case scenario, renegotiating – its ‘free movement of people’ agreement with Brussels, in view of limiting immigration from EU states.
The implementation of the new package of agreements – the ‘Bilateral III – may also be at risk at this point.
That’s because acceptance of the initiative “would also render other agreements null and void’,” the Federal Council said. “Switzerland’s participation in the EU’s Schengen and Dublin agreements would also be called into question, thereby jeopardising close cooperation in the areas of security and asylum.“
Member states have already said that termination of the free movement would have “far-reaching consequences” for relations between the EU and Switzerland.
A long and winding road
The text of the initiative will be integrated into the Constitution immediately after the vote.
At the same time, the Federal Council will instruct the Parliament to break down the broad constitutional mandate into specific, binding federal laws.
This phase typically involves months or even years of committee work and debates on how the policy should be executed.
And while some of these processes can be fairly quick (by Swiss standards), this particular one would take much longer, given the complexities and legal aspects of breaking or renegotiating international agreements that are part of this measure.
As an indication, it typically takes two to five years to pass and introduce a new federal law in Switzerland.
But wait – there is a chance this measure would never be implemented at all
How is this possible?
Switzerland’s system of direct democracy gives citizens who are against a certain law – old or new – the power to oppose it.
During the parliamentary drafting process, they can launch a referendum against it by collecting 50,000 signatures within 100 days.
