Will the sun come out for the second holiday weekend of the month, or will the cold and damp conditions continue — and what about Ascension weekend?
After a mostly dry and mild April, May in France has so far seen a return of wetter and cooler conditions across much of the country — and rainy and unsettled weather dominates forecasts for the upcoming long weekend – and the rest of May’s public holidays, sadly.
The longer-range forecasts come with their usual caveats about the difficulties in forecasting dynamic and ever-shifting weather patterns more than three to five days in advance.
But, the computer-modelling trend for the four-day Ascension holiday weekend leans heavily in favour of rain, and quite a lot of it. Sorry.
May 8-10th
Let’s start with this weekend, which is a three-day one because Friday, May 8th is a public holiday.
The cold front over France that made the early part of the week so miserable is set to start moving away over Germany on Thursday.
Warm sun is expected across a wide band between the Mediterranean and the Channel coasts on Friday morning.
Unfortunately, it is expected to be brief, national forecaster Météo-France said. Unstable conditions are expected in the east in the afternoon, while a new wave of thunderstorms are predicted to move in from the west later in the day.
More storms are expected across Brittany and in eastern areas of France on Saturday, though the rest of the country should at least enjoy some sunny spells between the rain. Whether they’re long enough for a barbecue, however, is open to individual chefs’ interpretations.
Weather models predict storm systems spreading across most of the country on Sunday, and another drop in temperatures after the brief rain-bookended hint of summer.
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May 14th-17th
The following week, Thursday May 14th, is a holiday for Ascension, offering the opportunity to ‘faire le pont‘ and take Friday off to create a four-day weekend
But over these four days, the trend is for rain.
Models supplied by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show expected rainfall in France above normal levels for the time of year, particularly in Brittany and along the Atlantic coast, and in a band from the Pyrenees across to the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes.
A rainy May is common in France, despite the month’s generally sun-soaked early summer image. In Paris, it’s routinely the wettest month of the year — and, after the unusually dry April, it’s good news for farmers and market gardeners.
May 25th
The fourth holiday in May in France (for some) is Pentecost on Monday, May 25th.
Forecasts this far ahead are understandably even less certain, but the consensus this far out leans towards drier than the first three public holidays of the month.
Which it should because we’ll be careering into June and the beginning of meteorological summer.
