The scenes witnessed across Libya during the Eid holiday were striking. Long queues formed at petrol stations, motorists waited hours for fuel and emergency meetings were convened to address growing public concern.
For many Libyans, the crisis felt familiar. Fuel shortages have become a recurring feature of daily life despite the country’s position as one of Africa’s most important oil producers.
What makes the latest shortages particularly noteworthy is that they occurred during a period of strong oil production and substantial export revenues. According to the National Oil Corporation (NOC), gasoline deliveries reached between 9 and 11 million litres per day during the Eid period. Libya is producing oil, exporting oil and generating billions of dollars in revenue. Yet fuel remains difficult to obtain.
The explanation highlights a challenge that extends far beyond Libya.
Oil production does not automatically create fuel security.
Libya possesses abundant crude oil reserves but lacks sufficient refining capacity to transform enough of that crude into the gasoline and diesel required by consumers and industry. The result is a structural dependence on imported fuel products. Regardless of how much oil is produced, the country still requires large volumes of refined fuel from abroad to meet domestic demand.
The financial implications are considerable. Libya generated approximately $4 billion in oil revenues during May. During the same period, around $1 billion was spent on imported fuel. A quarter of the country’s oil income was effectively used to purchase products that Libya could not produce in sufficient quantities itself.
The challenge does not end there. Fuel must then be distributed from ports and storage facilities to service stations across the country. Delays, bottlenecks and inefficiencies within that network can quickly create shortages even when fuel imports remain relatively strong.
This reality explains why increasing oil production alone has not solved the crisis.
It also explains why the oil swap programme played such an important role.
In recent years, discussions about the programme have often focused on allegations of misuse by certain actors. While oversight and accountability are important in any large scale commercial mechanism, focusing exclusively on those concerns risks overlooking a far more important reality. The programme worked.
The oil swap mechanism recognised the fundamental structure of Libya’s energy sector. Rather than waiting for long term refining investments to solve an immediate problem, it created a practical solution that enabled crude oil to be exchanged for the refined products Libya urgently needed.
The result was simple and effective. Fuel entered the country at scale. Service stations remained supplied. Industry continued operating. Transport networks functioned. Consumers had greater access to gasoline and diesel.
For a country facing chronic refining limitations, the programme served as a bridge between oil production and fuel consumption.
That bridge is now gone.
Since the programme ended in 2025, shortages have become increasingly severe. The events of Eid represent the clearest demonstration yet of the gap that has emerged. Whatever criticisms may have been directed at the mechanism, the deterioration in fuel availability since its termination is difficult to ignore.
This should not be viewed solely as a Libyan issue.
For Europe, Libya’s experience carries important lessons about energy security, resilience and the importance of flexible supply arrangements.
Over the past several years, the European Union has invested enormous effort into strengthening energy resilience following disruptions to global energy markets. Policymakers across Europe have increasingly recognised that energy security is not determined solely by production capacity. It depends on logistics, refining, transportation networks and the ability to secure supplies under changing market conditions.
In many respects, the oil swap programme reflected the same principle.
Rather than relying on rigid systems, it provided flexibility. It allowed Libya to convert its greatest strength, its crude oil production, into the refined products required by consumers. In doing so, it addressed a supply chain weakness without requiring years of infrastructure development before results could be achieved.
This concept should be familiar to European policymakers. Across the EU, energy resilience is increasingly built around diversification, flexibility and the ability to adapt to market realities. The most successful energy systems are often not those with the greatest resources, but those capable of moving energy efficiently from supply to demand.
Libya’s fuel shortages demonstrate what happens when that connection breaks down.
The European Union has a direct interest in a stable and economically resilient Libya. The country sits on Europe’s southern doorstep, remains an important Mediterranean energy partner and possesses resources that could contribute significantly to regional prosperity. A Libya struggling with recurring fuel shortages is not in the interest of either Libyan citizens or its European partners.
The lesson from the Eid crisis is therefore larger than a debate about petrol queues. It is about recognising which policies have delivered results and which have not.
The oil swap programme was not merely a temporary arrangement. It was one of the few mechanisms that successfully addressed Libya’s structural fuel deficit and ensured that refined products reached the domestic market at the volumes required. The worsening shortages seen since its removal suggest that its contribution to Libya’s fuel security was far greater than many observers acknowledged at the time.
As Libya considers how to address recurring shortages, policymakers should focus on practical outcomes rather than political perceptions. The priority must be ensuring that fuel reaches consumers, businesses and industry consistently and at scale.
The queues seen during Eid were a reminder that producing oil and delivering fuel are two very different things. They were also a reminder that effective solutions should not be discarded simply because they are imperfect. In Libya’s case, one of those solutions helped keep fuel flowing for years, and its absence is becoming increasingly visible.
