TASHKENT, Uzbekistan, May 4. Netherlands-based
ING Group considers a near-term rate cut by the Central Bank of
Uzbekistan unlikely, Trend reports.
According to ING’s latest outlook, strong domestic economic
growth and persistent external risks continue to complicate the
inflation forecast. Analysts stated that monetary easing in the
second half of 2026 appears to be an overly optimistic
scenario.
Earlier, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan kept its policy rate
unchanged at 14%, in line with market expectations. ING noted that
the National Bank of Kazakhstan has taken a similar decision,
reflecting a cautious regional stance amid ongoing tensions in the
Middle East.
ING added that the regulator’s April statement was less hawkish
than in March, indicating a lower probability of further tightening
rather than preparation for an imminent rate cut.
At the same time, inflation indicators showed improvement.
Annual headline inflation slowed to 7.1% in March, approaching the
central bank’s year-end 2026 forecast of 6.5%. Core inflation also
eased to 5.7% year-on-year, while household inflation expectations
continued to decline.
Analysts also pointed to weaker fiscal stimulus as a supporting
factor, noting that the consolidated budget deficit narrowed to
2.1% of GDP in 2025, compared to higher levels in previous
years.
ING emphasized that the regulator remains cautious. In its April
guidance, the central bank stated it would maintain “sufficient
restrictiveness” if pro-inflationary risks materialize, replacing
March’s more explicit signal that further tightening could be
considered.
