Iran’s economy may be teetering on the brink of collapse, but does that really threaten its regime? Monday’s flare-up of hostilities across the Strait of Hormuz makes clear that oil’s not about to start flowing freely again. Tehran and Washington are both signalling they can bear the pain of lost revenue and inflation, with Iran arguably taking that brinkmanship further.
When missiles target the Emirates‘ prized Fujairah pipeline, which bypasses the Strait, they’re shooting at what was a favoured hub for parking its cash and bypassing sanctions. We ask about who feels more pain in the divorce with the same UAE that last week quit OPEC, in part because it thought Gulf neighbours weren’t tough enough on Tehran.
Read moreUS and UAE report Iran attacks as military pushes to reopen Strait of Hormuz
The Islamic Republic knows that its main nemesis, the one that killed its supreme leader, faces the pain of rising prices at the pump ahead of November US midterm elections. But what about ordinary citizens in Iran, a nation where mass New Year’s protests were sparked by soaring inflation?
At what point is the regime in danger? A messianic streak and a survival mode honed over decades are both factors. But Iran and its powerful Revolutionary Guards also rely on a vast patronage system. Behind the cloak of an internet blackout, how’s it looking on that score?
Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Andrew Hilliar.
