KOF: Fewer guests from Asia slow down tourism in summer
Keystone-SDA
The war in Iran is likely to spoil Swiss tourism’s summer business. The KOF economic institute at ETH Zurich expects a decline of 1.6% to 24.8 million overnight stays in the hotel industry.
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Visitors from Asia in particular are likely to travel to Switzerland much less frequently this summer, the KOF reported on Tuesday. However, the outlook for the coming winter of 2026/27 remains stable.
The economic researchers have thus largely confirmed the forecast made by BAK Economics last week. BAK had predicted a decline of 1% to 24.9 million overnight stays for the 2026 summer season.
Both institutes cite the consequences of the Iran war for air travel as the main reason. Higher paraffin prices, more expensive flight tickets and longer or unsafe flight routes are having a negative impact on long-haul travel to Switzerland.
+ Iran war impacts Swiss fuel pumps, tourism and economy
Significantly fewer guests from Asia
The KOF is therefore expecting a decline of 2.9% to 13 million overnight stays by foreign guests. This is mainly due to the expected drop in guests from Asia of 10% to 1.5 million – with China even down 25.7% to 0.4 million.
By comparison, guests from Asia accounted for 12.4% of foreign overnight stays in summer 2025. According to KOF, this would still be 11.5% this summer. For guests from China, the share would fall to 3.1% from 4%. The Asian market is particularly important for many Swiss cities.
Domestic demand is likely to only partially compensate for this. For Swiss guests, 11.8 million overnight stays are expected for the summer – an increase of 0.2%. At 6.7 million overnight stays, only 0.4% less is expected for Europe.
In contrast to the long-distance markets, guests from Europe can still easily reach Switzerland by car, train or short flights. In addition, higher flight prices and uncertainty could lead to travellers choosing holiday destinations closer to home.
+ Switzerland lowers 2026 growth forecast due to Middle East conflict
Stable outlook for the winter
The KOF takes a more relaxed view of the coming winter of 2026/27, expecting 18.7 million overnight stays – practically the same number as the previous year. The winter is less dependent on long-haul travel and will be driven more by Swiss guests and travellers from local European markets.
The KOF rates the past winter of 2025/26 as very strong. However, after a record-breaking start to the season in November and December, momentum weakened noticeably towards the end. March was significantly weaker due to poorer snow conditions, but also due to the initial effects of the war in Iran.
Adapted from German by AI/ts
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