Bill Belichick is entering his second season as head coach at North Carolina, with expectations of program growth and more wins.
Belichick was a surprise hire at UNC in the winter of 2024, after spending nearly his entire coaching career in the NFL. His 2025 season was predictably difficult as he transitioned to the college game.
Carolina went 4-8 overall and 2-6 in conference, although it’s clear the team improved throughout the season. The Tar Heels had blowout losses early to TCU, UCF and Clemson before losing to Cal by three and Virginia by a single point in overtime.
They then beat Syracuse and Stanford before losing the final three to finish with just four wins.
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I’m gonna say something obvious: I firmly believe that Belichick knows how to coach football.
Who would second guess his résumé?
Even when his teams struggled at the end of his time in New England, it wasn’t for lack of football knowledge or scheme. Those teams lost because the players weren’t good enough. That was my concern for Belichick moving to college football for the first time.
Can he recruit and acquire players good enough to win games? In Year 1, it was clear that was not the case.
UNC had no players drafted and completely overhauled the roster ahead of next season. The Tar Heels added 61 new players, including a huge high school recruiting class of more than 40 players. They rank third in the ACC for their overall class, which is a ranking high enough to start winning games in Year 2 for Belichick.
The roster overhaul starts with adding Billy Edwards at quarterback to pair with new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino. Petrino has been an above-average offensive coach for years and that experience and past success will be important in guiding this group.
UNC has added a few receivers and multiple offensive linemen in the portal as well. Carolina also returns running back Demon June, who averaged 5.5 yards per attempt last season.
That’s a good weapon to return for this offense.
The Tar Heels’ defense last season was better than anyone gives it credit for. It finished the season ranked 25th in yards per play but was poor on third down. So UNC went into the portal to add pass rushers and linebackers, and it is hopeful that a rusher like Jaylen Harvey from Penn State can reach his full potential.
I’m not worried about the defense under Belichick. That’s never been a concern. Their season will come down to Edwards returning to his 2024 form that we saw at Maryland. If he, Petrino and the offensive parts can come together quickly, this team can win.
Now, Carolina’s schedule doesn’t have a ton of wins that are easy to spot today.
The Heels play TCU in Week 0 and are underdogs by just under a touchdown. It’s a game they can win but have to prove the offense can start fast.
East Tennessee State is a win and then the schedule is just full of 50-50 games — Pittsburgh, Syracuse, UConn, Louisville, Virginia and so on.
I do believe in this Carolina team winning five games. The Tar Heels will be good on defense, and they’ve improved the roster and offensive coaching staff. Belichick seems looser this season, which has become apparent during multiple media appearances this spring.
I have Carolina winning over 4.5 games in the regular season.
PICK: North Carolina Over 4.5 regular-season wins
