Bookmakers in Vegas and across the nation have the same conundrum every year when it comes to NBA playoff odds: They want the Lakers to be good but not too good.
Win a series or two, maybe three, and preferably in six or seven games each time. Then get out of the way.
So as the playoffs commence Saturday, a banged-up Lakers outfit isn’t necessarily ideal.
“The goal is for the Lakers to be around long enough to keep bettors involved but not win the championship. It’s always a little bit of a sweat,” Caesars Sports pro basketball lead David Lieberman said. “But injuries have hampered bettors’ expectations.”
Lieberman helps break down how NBA playoff odds are being bet so far, ahead of the Saturday and Sunday first-round tip-offs.
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Home Underdog
From Feb. 28-March 31, the Lakers went on a 16-2 run straight up (SU), while going 13-5 against the spread (ATS). Los Angeles significantly improved its playoff prospects, nearly catching Denver for the 3-seed in the Western Conference.
The Lakers (53-29 SU/45-36-1 ATS) ended up No. 4, so they at least have home-court advantage against the No. 5 Rockets (52-30 SU/36-46 ATS).
What the Lakers don’t have: Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves. Both players were injured in a blowout 139-96 loss at Oklahoma City on April 2. Dončić (hamstring) and Reaves (oblique) could miss all of the first round.
Oddsmakers responded by making Houston a hefty -600 favorite in NBA first-round series odds, with the Lakers a +435 underdog. In other words, L.A. isn’t expected to survive the first round.
In fact, LeBron James & Co. are 5.5-point home underdogs in Game 1, at 8:30 p.m. ET Saturday.
“The Lakers are such a popular team, and they were playing well. We’d taken a lot of action on the futures,” Lieberman said. “It’s a little unfortunate. We’re not seeing as much Lakers action as we otherwise would.”
But if you feel like James can carry L.A. through the injuries, maybe the Lakers are worth a shot in the series. A $100 bet would net $435 profit (total payout $535), if Los Angeles can pull off the upset.
Ones To Watch
With Rockets-Lakers losing some luster, Lieberman pointed to two series that are more intriguing in NBA playoff odds: No. 6 Timberwolves vs. No. 3 Nuggets in the West and No. 6 Hawks vs. No. 3 Knicks in the East.
“Those might be two of the better series,” Lieberman said. “Nuggets-Timberwolves should be highly competitive. And I think the Hawks have enough to give the Knicks a scare.”
Denver (54-28 SU/44-38 ATS) and Minnesota (49-33 SU/37-45 ATS) open with a 3:30 p.m. ET start on Saturday. Two years ago, the Timberwolves knocked out the defending champion Nuggets in a second-round series, winning Game 7 on the road.
This year, Denver is a -340 favorite to win the series, with Minnesota +265. The Nuggets are 6-point favorites in Game 1.
New York (53-29 SU/42-39-1 ATS) is a -275 favorite to beat Atlanta (46-36 SU/44-38 ATS) in their series. The Knicks are 5.5-point favorites in Game 1, a 6 p.m. ET tip-off Saturday.
The Hawks lost three of their last four regular-season games, but that was after a stout 18-2 SU/16-4 ATS run. Hence Lieberman’s semi-optimism toward Atlanta in this first-round matchup.
“That series might go longer than people think,” he said.
Seeing Into The Futures
The Spurs are arguably the hottest team in the NBA at the moment. From Feb. 1-April 2, San Antonio put together two 11-game win streaks as part of a torrid 27-2 SU overall run (17-11-1 ATS).
Preseason, you could get the Spurs at +5000 or more in odds to win the NBA Finals. So a $100 bet would stand to profit $5,000.
Now, the Spurs are all the way up to the No. 2 choice, at +415 in NBA championship odds, trailing only defending champion Oklahoma City (+125).
San Antonio finished the regular season at 62-20 SU, again behind only the Thunder (64-20 SU).
“People have been on the Spurs’ bus for a long time now, probably as early as November, on a game-to-game basis and definitely on the futures,” Lieberman said. “The Spurs are not a good [championship] result for us. They’re the biggest realistic liability.”
It’s worth pointing out that San Antonio won four of five meetings vs. OKC this season.
“The Spurs kind of had the Thunder’s number. If that’s their biggest obstacle, I could see them getting to the NBA Finals,” Lieberman said.
No. 2 seed San Antonio meets No. 7 seed Portland in the first round, with the Spurs massive -2000 favorites in NBA series odds.
Detroit is also a championship liability at Caesars. The Pistons (60-22 SU/44-37-1 ATS) nabbed the No. 1 seed in the East and a date with either the Hornets or Magic in the first round.
Despite that top seed, Detroit is the fifth choice in Caesars’ NBA Finals odds at +1600, trailing aforementioned OKC and San Antonio, as well as Boston (+550) and Denver (+850).
Caesars has a host of solid teams that it’s rooting for to lift the trophy.
“Most of the shorter-odds teams are good for us,” Lieberman said, noting even a repeat OKC title is fine. “The Thunder are usually a good result for us because of having shorter odds. It’s harder for liability to pile up.”
