On June 14th, the results of the controversial and highly divisive bid to curtail immigration to Switzerland will finally become known. But what conditions need to be met for this initiative to pass?
Much has been said and written about Switzerland’s unique system of direct (also referred to as ‘grassroots’) democracy.
In a nutshell, before a proposed law can be implemented, a referendum has to be held, where citizens have the last word on whether a particular piece of legislation will actually go into effect or be scrapped.
But that’s not all: Citizens can also propose new laws – as is the case with the Swiss People’s Party (SVP) ‘No to 10 million’ initiative – by collecting a required number of signatures.
For a federal initiative like the SVP’s, 100,000 valid signatures from eligible voters must be collected within an 18-month period, with the threshold for cantonal and municipal citizen-driven initiatives being much lower, and determined by individual cantons and communes.
As we now know the No to a Switzerland with 10 million initiative successfully garnered the required number of signatures in time to trigger the vote, which takes place on Sunday June 14th.
As a rule, referendums are launched by the government for approval of proposed laws, while popular initiatives, which seek to create new laws or amendments to be enshrined in the Constitution, are driven by citizens themselves.
READ MORE: How do Switzerland’s referendums actually work?
But what is actually needed for an issue on the ballot to get the green light?
You may think that the only thing that matters is the number of votes cast – the so called ‘popular majority.’
This is true, but only partially.
It is sufficient for ‘optional referendums’ – that is, votes to challenge federal laws, which require 50,000 signatures within 100 days.
It is also enough for the approval of ‘ordinary’ international treaties, like the Schengen agreement for instance. It is considered ‘ordinary’ (as opposed to ‘supranational ‘– read more about it below) because it does not impact Switzerland’s independence or transfer any of its legislative processes to foreign states.
However, for other votes to pass, not only the popular majority, but also the majority of the cantons is required.
It is called ‘the double majority’ and that is what’s needed for the approval of the ‘No to 10 million’ vote.
All proposals launched by citizens to amend the Constitution, those which require the 100,000 valid signatures, must meet this threshold.
‘The double majority’ is also required in ‘mandatory’ (as opposed to ‘optional’ ) referendums, including votes on Switzerland joining ‘supranational’ pacts like the European Union or NATO, where Switzerland would not be able to maintain its sovereignty vis-à-vis foreign countries.
How are ‘double majority’ votes counted?
According to Swiss government, “To determine the majority of cantons, each canton provides a Yes or No vote based on its individual voting results. If the majority of voters in a canton voted Yes, the popular vote of that canton counts as a Yes. A cantonal majority means that a majority of the cantons voted Yes.”
Further, the votes of the former half-cantons of Obwalden and Nidwalden, as well as Basel-City, Basel-Country, Appenzell Ausserrhoden and Appenzell Innerrhoden each count as half a vote.
Why does Switzerland rely on the ‘double majority’ system?
That’s because it is more ‘democratic’ and fairer in granting smaller – or half – cantons equal say in shaping laws, and keeps them from being ‘outvoted’ by their larger and more heavily populated counterparts.
READ MORE: A foreigner’s guide to understanding Swiss politics in five minutes
So what do the latest polls say?
Though previous surveys indicated the ‘yes’ vote would be a more likely result, the two latest ones show the ‘no’ camp is now prevailing – at least in the popular vote.
According to the survey carried out by gfs institute on behalf of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation and published on June 2nd, 52 percent of voters will ‘definitely’ or ‘probably’ reject the proposal, while 45 percent would ‘definitely’ or ‘probably’ approve it.
However, 4 percent of survey respondents remain undecided, which means the numbers could shift either way.
