Dating back to ancient Persia, Nowruz, celebrated in March, marks the arrival of the vernal equinox and the first day of spring in Iran. Uniquely for this year, Nowruz occurred side by side with Eid al-Fitr, the most important festival among Muslims to celebrate the end of the fasting month of Ramadan. Traditionally, both festivities are a time for gathering with family and friends, enjoying renewal and the gentle warmth of the changing air. Yet instead of celebration, ongoing conflict has cast a shadow over this moment, leaving many in a state of despair and helplessness, writes Yi Wang, Head of Global Development Program and Senior Researcher at ANBOUND.
The catastrophic aftermath of war
Following strikes by the United States and Israel within Iranian borders, and Iran’s subsequent retaliation, the conflict has involved multiple Middle Eastern nations. Many of the targets included oil storage facilities, refineries, and natural gas plants, as well as infrastructures linked to nuclear programs. The destruction of these sites has released a massive volume of toxins, contaminating the air, soil, and water. The resulting environmental devastation is expected to plague the region for decades to come.
The Conflict and Environment Observatory, a UK-based NGO, has already identified over 300 incidents in the current Iranian conflict that could lead to severe environmental damage. This figure likely represents only a fraction of the total. Researchers at the National Observatory of Athens have noted that when fires from Tehran’s oil fields mix with rainfall, toxic substances dissolve into the water supply. These toxins can easily penetrate the human nervous system and bloodstream, damaging the kidneys, liver, and other vital organs. Furthermore, the tankers and warships sunk in the Persian Gulf are poised to become long-term sources of pollution. As this contamination spreads to other coastal regions, the scale of the disaster expands, further accelerating global climate change. This, indeed, is a chilling prospect. It brings to mind the “scorched earth” tactics and “environmental terrorism” unleashed by Iraq against Kuwait 35 years ago. These actions left the international community in a state of shock and outrage for years to come.
The intensification of military conflict in the past few years has generated high carbon emissions worldwide. Naturally, the global transition away from fossil fuels will face significant disruptions and setbacks, which will inevitably be reflected in policy shifts. Decision-makers must now weigh their national interests against available technology, committing to emission reduction targets without expecting an overnight transformation.
The blurring line between economy and security
The conflict in Iran has dragged on for a month, not only destabilizing the Middle East but sending shockwaves through the global economy. It has fractured supply chains, disrupted international trade, and threatened the very structure of the modern economic order. With neither side willing to concede, the war has become a stalemate, fueling growing fears of a long-term conflict. Amidst this volatility, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have surged in popularity. Traders armed with insider insights and high-tech algorithms appear to be turning geopolitical strife and military violence into cold, hard cash.
As passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, energy supplies have been severely disrupted, which in turn caused the soaring inflation expectations. Oil has become the world’s primary fixation. Dubai Crude, the Middle Eastern benchmark, has breached $166 a barrel, while aviation fuel has surged to a historic high of $200. Every statement from President Donald Trump about the state of the war now carries enough weight to send global oil prices fluctuating wildly.
The impact of the Middle East conflict spreads rapidly and hits numerous critical industries, from shipping and aviation to power generation, chemicals, agriculture, and food production. From the factory floor to the kitchen tables, from toys to cosmetics, these disruptions are ultimately driving up the cost of living for ordinary people. Many governments worldwide are now calling for national energy conservation, with citizens being asked to voluntarily limit travel or even shorten their showers as they brace for a difficult period of power and gas shortages.
Geopolitical shifts driven by oil shortage
For government officials, the top priority has shifted towards ensuring economic stability and public livelihoods. Countries that rely heavily on Middle Eastern crude are scrambling to secure alternative supplies to ease the mounting pressure on both businesses and households.
Even the United States has now temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil. Asian nations too are buying Russian crude and petroleum products. India takes the lead in importing Russian oil, while South Korea and Japan are exploring similar options. Thailand and Vietnam are also currently in negotiations with Moscow. Meanwhile, the Philippines has expressed readiness to resume talks with China regarding joint oil and gas projects in the South China Sea.
While the European Union remains committed to ending its dependence on Russian energy, aiming to halt all Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, this has now become increasingly complicated. The European Commission had planned legislation to phase out Russian oil, intent on shrinking its share of exports to a mere 2%. However, the Middle East conflict has forced a pragmatic shift. The EU’s latest statement promises technical and financial support to Ukraine to repair the damaged Druzhba pipeline, ensuring the continued flow of Russian crude to Hungary and Slovakia.
As electricity prices skyrocket, European households are accelerating towards “rooftop generation”. Since March, Chinese photovoltaic companies have secured several major contracts in the UK and Polish markets. Previously, the EU’s Industrial Accelerator Act which prioritizes “Made in the EU” products through public procurement and support policies, seemed to raise the barrier for Chinese imports. Yet, against the backdrop of persistent warfare, Europe’s long-term energy transition needs may be forced to open new doors, granting Chinese firms a fresh entry point as the market recalibrates.
Avoiding the unnecessary war
In recent years, geopolitical tensions have reached a breaking point, with constant friction and conflict that go far beyond simple territorial disputes. As the world shifts towards the green transition, EV battery manufacturing, AI, and semiconductors, the global hunger for resources is intensifying. Whether it is the race for energy, restrictions on critical minerals, or the massive power and water demands of AI data centers, any of these could very well potentially serve as a flashpoint for conflict, sparking regional disputes sooner or later. Control over resources and supply chains has now become a key “strategic lever”. The infrastructure, trade routes, advanced technologies, and capital strategies tied to these resources are now the primary forces driving international cooperation and reshaping global partnerships.
There is a wide range of strategic resources, and development across upstream and downstream sectors is uneven. In reality, no country or region can achieve complete self-sufficiency or fully control the entire industrial chain. Oil, rare earths, lithium, nickel, graphite, and water resources each represent areas where different players hold their own advantages. The fundamental objective is for the consumption side to secure its bargaining power and avoid being constrained by resource suppliers. Diversifying markets and partners, as well as supply chains, is essential to effectively reduce unforeseen risks.
“Coordinating multiple objectives” is a common challenge faced by those in governance. Balancing diverse interests amid conflict and achieving fairness and justice in the face of unequal resource distribution requires both skilled negotiation and the courage to take responsibility.
Geopolitical relations are sensitive and complex, rooted in a kind of collective anxiety. Heavily influenced by the emotions behind decision-making, international relations are increasingly showing signs of decision paralysis. Aggressive policies come at too great a cost. Improving decision-making capacity requires mutual support and coordinated action. This means that the priority of the current world should really be that the international community works together to find the most mutually beneficial and effective ways to resolve issues, rather than resorting to one conflict after another. As Winston Churchill once observed, the Second World War was an unnecessary war, one that could have been avoided through wiser diplomacy and earlier intervention. Learning from history and resolving disputes through dialogue, compromise, and international cooperation is precisely the kind of foresight that is lacking in our chaotic time.
