A European Commission evaluation of the existing versions of the EU Tobacco Products Directive (TPD) and the Tobacco Advertising Directive (TAD) released last week, provide some insights on the next steps in tobacco and nicotine regulation to come.
TPD and TAD date back to 2014 and 2003 respectively, when they mainly focused on traditional cigarettes. However, since then, new products such as e-cigarettes, heated tobacco and nicotine pouches have emerged on the EU market. These novel products are covered in an insufficient way by the current framework.
The European Union is quietly laying the groundwork for one of the most significant public health and regulatory overhauls in over a decade. A shift that moves beyond traditional tobacco control towards full-scale regulation of the entire nicotine market.
Recent developments such as the European Commission’s evaluation of its tobacco control framework, its accompanying press statement, and emerging industry responses, together signal a decisive turning point in EU policy.
At the heart of this transition lies a stark realisation: while Europe has succeeded in reducing smoking, it now faces a new and rapidly evolving challenge: the rise of alternative nicotine products.
From tobacco control to nicotine regulation
The Commission’s long-awaited evaluation of the Tobacco Products Directive (TPD) and Tobacco Advertising Directive (TAD) concludes that existing legislation has been broadly effective. Smoking rates across the EU have declined from around 28% in 2012 to 24% in 2023, a notable public health achievement.
Yet this success story comes with a caveat.
Over the same period, the market for new nicotine products — including e-cigarettes, heated tobacco, and nicotine pouches — has expanded dramatically. According to findings highlighted in recent coverage, the EU e-cigarette market alone has grown by more than 450% in value since 2012 .
These products, largely absent when current legislation was drafted, now sit at the centre of the policy debate.
The Commission’s message is clear: the regulatory framework is no longer fully fit for purpose.
A shifting health narrative
Perhaps the most significant change is not regulatory, but conceptual.
For years, alternative nicotine products were often framed — particularly by industry — as harm-reduction tools, offering smokers a less dangerous pathway away from combustible cigarettes.
That framing is now being challenged.
The Commission’s evaluation, reinforced by recent reporting, highlights growing evidence linking newer products to cardiovascular and respiratory issues, as well as potential risks during pregnancy . Concerns are also mounting over carcinogenic substances in some vapour products.
More importantly, policymakers are increasingly focused on addiction itself — not just smoking.
Officials have warned that Europe risks replacing declining cigarette use with “a new epidemic of nicotine addiction,” particularly among younger users .
This marks a fundamental shift: the policy goal is no longer simply to reduce smoking, but to limit nicotine dependence more broadly.
The digital loophole
If traditional tobacco control focused on packaging, labelling and advertising bans, the next phase will likely be fought online.
The Commission has identified social media platforms, including TikTok, Instagram, YouTube and X (previously Twitter), as key vectors for the promotion of new nicotine products, often via influencers targeting younger audiences .
Current legislation, designed in a pre-digital era, struggles to address these channels.
This regulatory gap is expected to be a major focus of upcoming reforms, potentially drawing the EU deeper into the governance of digital platforms and cross-border online sales.
Industry and tobacco growers push back
The evolving stance has triggered a predictable response from the tobacco industry.
Philip Morris International (PMI), one of the sector’s largest players, has acknowledged the Commission’s evaluation but urged policymakers to adopt what it describes as an “inclusive, evidence-based approach.”
PMI argued that policy should reflect “the full scope of scientific evidence” and include input from “expert organisations, the private sector ecosystem, and consumers,” adding that public health could benefit from encouraging smokers to switch to “better, smoke-free alternatives.”
The broader industry has echoed similar concerns.
Nathalie Darge, Secretary General of Tobacco Europe, said the evaluation was meant to be “an honest, evidence-based look at what is working and what is not,” but argued that “this opportunity has been completely missed.”
She added that the report fails to reflect “real-world progress” in some Member States and overlooks key issues such as illicit trade, enforcement challenges, and the economic role of the sector.
Consumer-focused advocacy groups have also entered the debate.
The World Vapers’ Alliance criticised the evaluation as “complacent and biased,” warning that the EU risks undermining harm reduction by treating safer alternatives too similarly to cigarettes. It argues that vaping and other non-combustible products can play a significant role in helping smokers quit.
Gennarino Masiello, President of Unitab EU, the European Union of Tobacco Growers, declared from his side that sectoral policies that fail to adhere to the principles of better regulation, carefully analysing the full range of economic and social impacts, risk achieving the opposite of the intended effect, creating a competitive disadvantage for EU producers. This will ultimately favour imports of raw tobacco from non-EU countries, fuel illicit markets for finished products, discourage investment, and weaken employment, damaging local economies, he added.
Public health voices call for faster action
Public health and cancer organisations, however, are urging the Commission to go further and faster.
The Smoke Free Partnership welcomed the evaluation as “long overdue” and called for “no further delays” in updating EU legislation.
Meanwhile, Wolfgang Fecke, Executive Director of the Association of European Cancer Leagues, issued a stark warning: “Europe’s tobacco rules are no longer fit for purpose. Without an ambitious reform, we risk further losing an entire generation of young people to addiction and smoking-related diseases, including cancer.”
A deepening policy divide
The clash between these perspectives is shaping up to be the defining regulatory debate in Brussels.
On one side, public health advocates and an increasing number of policymakers argue for stricter controls, citing youth uptake, addiction risks and emerging health evidence.
On the other, industry stakeholders promote harm reduction, innovation and consumer choice.
Member States themselves are divided. Countries such as France, Belgium and the Netherlands are pushing for tougher measures, while others, including Italy and Greece, are more cautious. Sweden remains a special case, defending its long-standing use of snus.
This divergence ensures that the path to reform will be politically complex.
What comes next
The Commission is expected to propose revisions to both the TPD and TAD by the end of 2026. Unlike some areas of EU policymaking, changes will require only a qualified majority, making reform highly likely — though its final shape remains uncertain.
What is clear is that the scope of regulation is expanding.
Future EU rules are likely to encompass not only traditional tobacco products, but also the full spectrum of nicotine delivery systems, alongside stricter controls on marketing, particularly in digital spaces.
A defining moment
Taken together, the Commission’s evaluation, its political messaging, and industry responses reveal a fundamental transformation underway.
The EU is no longer simply fighting smoking. It is preparing to regulate nicotine itself across products, platforms and borders.
How that balance is struck between public health protection, harm reduction, market innovation and political compromises will shape Europe’s approach to tobacco and nicotine for the next decade and beyond.
