The costs are only rising for France from Iran’s war with the US and Israel: security and military losses, economic shocks, especially around energy, to say nothing of diplomatic friction with allies, and rising domestic political tension that some fear could further promote the far right in France.
On the military side, French forces in the Middle East have come under fire despite France not joining the offensive, including a French soldier killed and several wounded in a drone attack on the Erbil base in Iraqi Kurdistan linked to Tehran‑aligned militias. France has reinforced protection of its bases and partners, including the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Kurdistan. The French have deployed combat aircraft and air‑defence assets and kept the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle and other ships forward‑deployed, raising risks and costs for the armed forces. Officials in Paris openly warn that the war increases the risk of spillover to Europe and of new terrorist or proxy attacks against French interests, forcing heightened vigilance at home.
In economic terms, the Iranian war, especially the disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global oil and gas flows, has directly hit European and especially French energy security. This disruption and wider regional instability have pushed up energy prices and market volatility in Europe, with analysts noting that the political and economic uncertainty particularly affects France and other EU states already struggling with inflation and energy transition. Shipping insurance costs, rerouting of tankers, and broader investor nervousness raise France’s import bill and weigh on growth, even though France is not a belligerent.
The war has reignited debate inside France over its role in the Middle East, with opposition parties and commentators alternately criticising either the government’s “ambiguity” for being too close to the US, or its “timidity” for not firmly opposing the strikes. Public anxiety about a wider regional war and its impact on security, migration, and the cost of living has grown, fuelling nationalist discourse and polarisation over foreign policy choices. The need to protect French nationals and diaspora communities linked to Iran, Israel, Lebanon and the wider region has forced the state to intensify consular, policing, and intelligence efforts, stretching internal security resources.
There is no doubt the French government was outraged over Iran’s attacks on its neighbours in the Gulf. French officials used unusually strong language to condemn those strikes and clearly signalled anger at Tehran’s actions. In a joint statement with Germany and the UK, the leaders said they were “appalled” by Iran’s “indiscriminate and disproportionate missile attacks” on regional countries, calling them “reckless attacks” that must stop immediately. France’s foreign minister Jean-Noël Barrot blamed the Iranian regime for “overwhelming responsibility” in the escalation and highlighted its use of missiles, drones and support for armed groups to destabilise the region.
Paris declared its total solidarity with the GCC countries that were “deliberately targeted” and “dragged into a war they did not choose,” and reiterated that France was ready to help defend them under collective self‑defence principles. French leaders also warned that Iran’s attacks threaten French civilians and troops in the region and pledged to take steps, together with allies, to protect their interests and, if needed, enable defensive action against Iran’s launch capabilities.
What is being called the “second energy shock” means that French forecasts for 2026 growth have already been revised down from about 1.0% to 0.9%, and industrial sectors that are energy‑intensive such as chemicals, metals, manufacturing face sustained higher costs and possible partial de‑industrialisation if the shock persists. Higher energy and input prices, plus disrupted shipping via the Gulf, will likely keep inflation elevated, squeeze household purchasing power, and force the state to either spend more on support – hurting public finances – or accept a more unequal social impact.
There could be a high political price to pay from a prolonged external shock that slows growth while keeping prices high, conditions that feed political frustration. Analysts already note that the Iran war could lock France into a low‑growth, high‑uncertainty path, perhaps further opening the door for Jordan Bardella and the far right in the presidential elections.
