The Iran war is damaging America’s influence around the world and exacerbating tensions with countries already whipsawed by President Donald Trump’s second term — an erosion of power that could be tough to reverse as U.S. adversaries such as China take advantage.
From Bangladesh to Slovenia, fuel rationing has throttled transportation, frustrating leaders dealing with the fallout of a war they did not want. In Muslim-majority countries, anti-U.S. narratives are flooding the airwaves, often with tacit permission from governments. Even America’s allies in NATO have limited their help to the U.S., with some stressing the Trump administration did not consult them before launching the fight with Iran.
The war appears to be accelerating what some see as a U.S. break-up with much of the rest of the planet since Trump returned to office and began flexing U.S. economic and military might in haphazard ways, including tariffs.
“A lot of people are fed up with how chaotic this war has been and scared of the potential economic impact, but I haven’t seen any major protests in response,” a Washington-based Asian diplomat said, having been granted anonymity because the topic is sensitive. “If a more reasonable person becomes the next president, the image of the U.S. might improve, but for policymakers this raises some tough long-term questions about the alliance, how far we can go to stay aligned with the U.S. and what we should do if we can’t rely on the U.S. anymore.”
In the latest sign of foreign powers distancing themselves, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney described his country’s economic ties with the U.S. as “weaknesses” to correct in a video message released Sunday.
“We have to take care of ourselves because we can’t rely on one foreign partner,” said Carney, who has been increasingly critical of Trump due in part to his threats to Greenland. “We can’t control the disruption coming from our neighbors. We can’t bet our future on the hope that it will suddenly stop.”
Trump’s constant vacillation on what he wants to accomplish in Iran hasn’t inspired confidence, some former U.S. officials say.
“Allies don’t know what to believe, adversaries don’t know what to fear, and his own Cabinet do not know what his strategy or intentions actually are,” said Thomas Wright, a former National Security Council official in the Biden administration who focused on long-term strategy. “The long-term prognosis isn’t terminal. But the question is what China, Russia, North Korea and Iran do with the next two years and nine months if this drift continues.”
Asked for comment, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said Trump’s America First approach has translated to better trade deals, enhanced partnerships for combating drug trafficking and increased defense spending by allies.
“World leaders have talked about the threat posed by Iran for 47 years, but no one had the courage to address it,” Kelly said. “Once all of our objectives are met, including eliminating Iran’s nuclear threat for good, the entire world will be safer, more stable, and better off.”
Sparks fly over energy prices
Since the U.S. and Israel launched the war with Iran on Feb. 28, the global energy sector has been walloped by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s attacks on Middle Eastern energy facilities.
The U.S., which already was the world’s top oil and gas producer, has seen its influence over energy markets bolstered in the near term, but those gains may be short term.
Asian countries most exposed to volatile energy prices — some of whom mandated working from home or halted exports to conserve fuel — have vowed to accelerate renewable energy installations and restart nuclear power plants. Europe, keen to heed its lesson from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wants to avoid depending on a single energy supplier. It instead plans to expand energy efficiency and renewable power programs and deploy more electric vehicles.
Nations that want to limit the shocks from fossil fuels like shortages and sudden price spikes — all of which have led to dreadful stagflationary scenarios of slow growth and rising costs — have come to view alternatives like solar power, batteries and electric vehicles as necessary. Many may turn to China, which controls an overwhelming majority of the solar energy supply chain. Beijing is producing electric vehicles at cut-rate prices and controls the bulk of minerals for clean energy and batteries.
“The goal here is not just to survive the shock. It is to use this period of uncertainty to build a foundation for more durable stability,” Asian Development Bank President Masato Kanda said last week at a Council on Foreign Relations event in Washington.
Energy Department spokesperson Ben Dietderich referred POLITICO to comments Energy Secretary Chris Wright made in a Sunday appearance on CNN. Wright criticized the effectiveness of subsidies to promote renewable energy and said the U.S. would maintain its influence through oil and gas.
“We’re a net exporter of oil to the world and we’re by far and away the world’s largest net-exporter of natural gas,” he said.
Fewer friends on the battlefield
The strain on America’s military alliances has been impossible to ignore as the war continues.
In previous wars in the region, U.S. presidents have managed to rally even reluctant allies to the cause. That included the Trump administration asking for help in defending Israeli cities and civilian infrastructure in the region from Iranian attacks last year.
This time the Trump administration didn’t brief even its closest allies beforehand, according to two diplomats from European countries, and hasn’t made clear asks of them since.
That has had an effect. In response to the closure of the strait, the U.K. and France have convened several meetings with dozens of allied states, but not the U.S., to devise a plan to keep the strait open after the war ends.
The European initiative will be aimed at conducting defensive operations to protect commercial shipping in the strait, but timing, and the forces to be involved, remain a work in progress.
That comes as the European Union is also exploring ways to beef up the bloc’s collective defense mechanism, Article 42.7, should it be tested in a move that can be seen as a response to Trump administration threats to take Greenland by force.
Still, U.S. defense relationships run deep around the world and are hard to unravel. Trump has repeatedly threatened to unwind some of them (including leaving NATO), but he has not taken any serious steps in that direction. Many countries, while frustrated by Trump, still want U.S. military prowess on their side.
On Monday, the U.S. and the Philippines kicked off major military exercises that are expected to include Japan and Canada and serve as a warning to China.
In the Middle East, the U.S. attacks on Iran have produced mixed responses.
Israel has been a stalwart partner in the fight against Iran, and it appears intent on weakening the Islamic Republic as much as possible if it can’t outright overthrow the regime.
While Persian Gulf countries tried to dissuade the U.S. from its first attacks on Iran, many have since been incensed by Iranian retaliatory strikes on their soil. The United Arab Emirates, for one, has increasingly sided with the U.S.-led war effort, even as it reportedly has raised the possibility it might need a financial lifeline from Washington.
Diplomatic debacles
The war in Iran has also damaged America’s reputation and sway in countries where U.S. efforts to strengthen relations face tough competition.
In an excerpt of a State Department cable dated Thursday, U.S. diplomats at the American Embassy in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, warned that “the conflict in Iran has led to the emergence of a persistent anti-American narrative in Tajikistan’s heavily constrained media environment as foreign actors deepen their influence and local outlets chase clicks and external funding.”
The excerpt, newly obtained by POLITICO, added, “Our competitors are expending resources to ensure narrative dominance in a country that sits at the intersection of China, Afghanistan, Russia and Iran.”
Similar cables sent from U.S. diplomats in Bahrain, Indonesia and Azerbaijan — and previously reported upon by POLITICO — also described a proliferation of anti-U.S. messaging and warned that, in some cases, America’s security and diplomatic ties were at risk.
Asked for comment, State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott shared a stock statement he’s used before: “President Trump’s actions are making the United States, future generations, and the entire world safer by preventing the Iranian regime from obtaining a nuclear weapon. That’s the reality, and the entire administration is lockstep in that effort.
Trump’s moves in Iran have compounded alienation some U.S. allies felt when he launched a “Board of Peace” that was conceived as a body to help implement an agreement between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, but that critics grew to suspect was designed to supplant the United Nations. Hungary and Bulgaria were the only two EU members to formally join the board by the time it launched in February. Other EU countries stayed at arms length by sending observers only, and Belgium underscored its hesitation Monday.
Belgium’s Foreign Affairs ministry spokesperson David Jordens told POLITICO his country does not intend to donate funds via the Board of Peace.
Still, Trump backers argue any current pains resulting from the U.S. president’s actions in Iran will be worth it in the long run.
Alexander Gray, who served as a top National Security Council official in Trump’s first term, said the decision to go after Iran and its destabilizing activities now will “pay dividends for future presidents.”
Daniella Cheslow and Phelim Kine contributed to this report.