A new report by Spain’s tourism alliance predicts that more international visitors will choose Spain this year due to concerns over travelling to or via the Middle East, even though the Iran conflict is set to make the cost of Spanish holidays higher.
Spain is currently the second-most visited country in the world, just behind France, but experts are predicting more tourists than ever this summer, despite rising prices.
According to the Alliance for Tourism Excellence’s (Exceltur) new summer outlook report, the war in Iran is pushing even more international visitors to Spain, whilst increasing prices at the same time.
Exceltur believes that more travellers will choose Spain due to the “refuge effect”, namely its appeal and safety.
On the other hand, the alliance also anticipates that rising prices due to the impact of the war will mean less families will be able travel overall.
This could mean that while there will be an increase in the number of visitors, it’s likely only those who are well off will be able to come to Spain, pricing out many locals.
“We are seeing bookings to Spain and bookings from Spaniards within Spain. This will happen in the second quarter and especially towards the summer,” said Exceltur’s executive vice president, Óscar Perelli during a recent press conference.
He believes that the increase will most likely occur from May onwards and “with special intensity” during the summer months.
READ ALSO: How will war in Iran impact life in Spain?
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Exceltur, estimates that tourism GDP will grow by 2.5 percent this year, above the 2.4 percent forecast in January and the 2.1 percent recorded in 2025, exceeding the Bank of Spain’s projection.
According to their estimates, tourism will contribute 15.9 percent to the growth of the Spanish economy in 2026.
By region, the tourism boost will be strongest in Castilla-La Mancha which will see an increase of 8.2 percent, followed by Extremadura with a rise of 7.8 percent.
When it comes to coastal destinations, they predict Valencia will see a 7.7 percent rise in tourists, Murcia will see a growth of 6.3 percent, and the Balearic Islands will see an increase 6 percent.
Regions that are already holiday favourites such as the Canary Islands, Andalusia and Catalonia, have more moderate forecasts of between +2.7 percent and 1.1 percent.
READ ALSO: How will the war in Iran affect the property market in Spain?
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Despite this, the Exceltur report also warns that “the sharp increase in costs that has begun to impact the profit and loss accounts of tourism companies is a major concern”.
This is particularly true when it comes to transport costs. The alliance has called for guarantees of the supply of jet fuel at standardised prices, as well as the urgent need to increase Spanish rail infrastructure manager Adif’s investments in railway infrastructure maintenance to help the situation.
Spanish low-cost airline Volotea announced earlier this month that it will cancel flights until the end of April due to the instability caused by the war in the Middle East and rising energy costs. The carrier also reserves itself the right to increase the price on purchased tickets by 10 percent if jet fuel costs continue to escalate.
Ryanair and Lufthansa are considering reducing routes due to these higher costs and have warned of higher ticket prices.
Air France and KLM have raised their round-trip ticket prices by around €50 on average.
Spanish airport operator Aena has also raised its airport fees, with airlines expected to pass on the extra cost to passengers.
According to hotel technology platform Siteminder, tourist accommodation in Spain this Easter was 1.5 percent more expensive than last year.
Tourist taxes in cities like Barcelona have also been introduced or increased. As a result, staying in the Catalan capital will cost as much as €15 more per night.
