Swiss economy made a good start to the year
Keystone-SDA
Despite the oil price shock and customs turbulence, the Swiss economy performed well at the beginning of 2026. However, it is uncertain whether this trend will continue.
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Real, seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.5% in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter, according to the GDP flash estimate published on Monday by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). Both the industrial and service sectors contributed to the result.
In the last quarter of 2025, GDP had grown by 0.2%, while in the previous quarter it had decreased by 0.5% due to the tariff dispute.
The current growth exceeds the experts’ forecasts: in a survey conducted by the AWP agency, analysts had predicted growth of between 0.3% and 0.4%.
+ No recession in Switzerland despite oil crisis, says study
However, for Felicitas Kemeny, head of the economic situation at SECO, the surprise is limited. “Confidence in the economy has improved,” she says. “The reduction in tariffs has had a positive effect and a slight positive impulse has also come from Germany.”
Several leading indicators have indeed signalled a positive trend. Moreover, it should not be forgotten that the oil price rose significantly only in March, i.e. in the third month of the quarter.
However, even after that the confidence indicators did not deteriorate significantly, Kemeny notes. This raises hopes for positive momentum to be maintained in the short term.
However, Kemeny does not want to prejudge the need to adjust the federal government’s economic forecasts. So far, in its main scenario, the government’s expert group assumed growth of 1.0% for the current year; with oil prices remaining high, this should be 0.8%.
The GDP flash, published 45 days after the end of each quarter, is based on preliminary information available on the production side. Basic data that are still incomplete are supplemented by estimates and updated at a later date, which may affect the result. The detailed GDP estimate will be published on June 1. Only then will it be possible to provide specific information on individual sectors.
Adapted from Italian by AI/ts
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